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ZEITGEIST INVESTMENT THESIS

Zeitgeist And the Zeal For Predictive Market Success

By ICONPLUS CAPITAL, August 18, 2021

 

 

Zeitgeist is a prediction market platform designed to be both flexible and scalable on the Substrate framework. It is designed to be completely peer-to-peer with an optimized runtime logic for low-cost performance, especially during peak traffic. 

Behind Zeitgeist

Hosted on Substrate with launch expectations on the Polkadot network, Zeitgeist has a slew of investors, advisors, and an integral founding team. Leading the charge into the Substrate/Polkadot prediction realm is Logan Saether, who has worked various leading roles including the Founder of Convergent and most recently part of the technical launches of the Kusama network. Alongside Logan is David Perry, who was the Co-Founder of Consensus Point - a prediction platform for organizations that David has worked with such as Qualcomm, Best Buy, and the United States Government, spanning over 20 years. 

While Logan and the founding team are holding the frontlines of Zeitgeist, the platform is also made possible by the strategic investors and partnerships that have helped them along the way and undoubtedly in the years to come.

The Zeitgeist investor and partnership list is composed of some prominent names in the cryptocurrency space, such as D1 Ventures, Genblock Capital, and AU21 Capital, who combined have helped some of the best platforms in the history of crypto and all of them directly involved in the investing success of Polkadot. Other investors include IconPlus Capital, A195, Digital Renaissance, Brilliance Ventures, Blocksync Ventures, 4SV, and many more.

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Zeitgeist On The Surface

On the front side of things, Zeitgeist is not subtle about what the platform is designed to do and accomplish - it is a Substrate and Polkadot oriented prediction market platform to help communities achieve success based on the spirit and thoughts of the world around them. Zeitgeist has a literal meaning as “the spirit or mood of a period of time”, which fits the mold of what Zeitgeist is - a market that quantifies what people want to express (and put money behind) which reflects as a whole what people are thinking.

This platform presentation is built on the idea and practice of flexibility, scalability, and futarchy, much like the Zeitgeist name suggests. There are four pillars that the platform represents:

  • Substrate Framework: the Substrate framework is a particularly advanced blockchain that helps creators, developers, and users navigate through a more adaptable architecture. Substrate comes out of the box with cross-chain compatibility with different computational language support, forkless upgrades, and a very easy to use client-side system which is extremely mobile friendly.

  • A True P2P Structure: having a foundational approach to a peer-to-peer network is important for a project like Zeitgeist, as they are extremely focused on what others aspire to have as predictive outcomes. With Zeitgeist, no one controls the network so there is no concern for bias in a predictive market or any sort of censorship.

  • Layer-1 Foundations: Zeitgeist is a platform that is run on a Layer-1 chain of its own, which enables them to achieve all the pros of what a Layer-1 can accomplish, primarily the idea of setting their own costs and fees associated with being on the platform. Due to its capability and the competitive nature of cryptocurrency, Zeitgeist is able to give the lowest costs possible thanks to how the logic on the market is built - which is also why Substrate is a preferred choice for the platform. 

  • Native Resolution: Zeitgeist also has its own native currency called ZTG, which is predicted to be settled much more efficiently and localized. The ZTG token is highly important for the role of market creation and resolving the scenarios that take place on the platform. 

Understanding The Zeitgeist Platform

Taking into account the approaches that Zeitgeist has built in their market, there are a suite of offerings for users of this prediction environment. First and foremost, they specialize in predictive events that users can trade positions or predict outcomes. Some of the categories that users of the platform can participate in are as follows:

  • Sports/eSports: users can follow fans and trade positions according to the outcomes of the games or events.

  • Politics: aggregation of political races help users determine which side of the voting results that want to be on.

  • Cryptocurrency: Zeitgeist allows for pseudo-contractual positions in certain cryptocurrencies, mimicking traditional long or short positions. 

  • Insurance: outcomes can be taken into account on claims.

  • Startups: positions for success or failures can be taken on startups, allowing for an extra layer of observations on these businesses.

  • Futarchy: companies have the opportunity to run their decision making on-chain, while allowing others to hedge against these decisions.

These applications offer an array of opportunities on Zeitgeist and show just how diverse a prediction market can be. In addition, users of the platform that hold the ZTG token have options for governance, including being on a system called Courts. This system allows users to stake their tokens in order to execute outcomes while other users can hold them accountable to do their job. In a way, it seems extremely democratic in nature.

This is also just the beginning for Zeitgeist. Looking forward for the rest of 2021, the Zeitgeist team has four distinct improvements to the platform: activation of their beta testnet they have called Battery Pack, implementing the Core Logic frontend for the platform, launching the mainnet Zeitgeist network, and finally the Futarchy DAO and Liquidity Reward programs.

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Source: Coinquora.com

Target Market - Who is Zeitgeist For?

Is Zeitgeist for everyone? If you are someone that likes to guess outcomes and/or use strategic planning to come to a conclusion of what may/may not happen at things like sporting events, voting, or crypto trading, then this is something that will favor your interest. If you are not big into sports, politics, or understanding certain aspects of business, then this may not be for you. Either way, if you have an interest in speculation, Zeitgeist is worth checking out.

Value Proposition

Is Zeitgeist a worthy platform and does it provide value? Statistics show that there is plenty of room for Zeitgeist to succeed. In just sports and esports alone, over $208 Billion was placed into predictive markets in 2020 related to sports. Additionally, the US Presidential Election was voted likely as one of the most speculated events in predictive history. There is plenty of space for a platform like Zeitgeist, but money alone isn't the prime reason why a predictive platform is valuable.

There is much to say about a predictive platform that is mainly operated by the community and the users of that platform. Additionally, having something P2P helps the users keep control, preventing fraudulent activity happening. This also prevents a centralized system where users can hack into other accounts, which has been spotted in 72% of companies and 64% of gaming companies.

Reflection

Zeitgeist offers a rounded foundation, a spread of diverse infotainment and variables for predictive events, and a deep application for P2P networking. Substrate is the preferred and optimized platform for this type of operation by working on the strengths of what Polkadot/Substate can do, thus offering lower costs to use the platform. In addition, Zeitgeist has a unique value proposition due to the sheer volume of money that comes into this type of market, in addition to the decentralized nature of its operation.

For more information, you can check out Zeitgeist in addition to some supplemental reading:

 

Zeitgeist Website

The Zeitgeist Blog

Primer on Predictive Markets 

Disclaimer: All content shared on this website is for informational purposes only and is not professional or financial advice. Always consult a qualified financial advisor and do you own research before investing.